Francesco Vitale, Nicola Dall'Ora, Sebastiano Gaiardelli, Enrico Fraccaroli, Nicola Mazzocca, Franco Fummi

Fault diagnosis in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) is essential for ensuring system dependability and operational efficiency by accurately detecting anomalies and identifying their root causes. However, the manual modeling of faulty behaviors often demands extensive domain expertise and produces models that are complex, error-prone, and difficult to interpret. To address this challenge, we present a novel unsupervised fault diagnosis methodology that integrates collective anomaly detection in multivariate time series, process mining, and stochastic simulation. Initially, collective anomalies are detected from low-level sensor data using multivariate time-series analysis. These anomalies are then transformed into structured event logs, enabling the discovery of interpretable process models through process mining. By incorporating timing distributions into the extracted Petri nets, the approach supports stochastic simulation of faulty behaviors, thereby enhancing root cause analysis and behavioral understanding. The methodology is validated using the Robotic Arm Dataset (RoAD), a widely recognized benchmark in smart manufacturing. Experimental results demonstrate its effectiveness in modeling, simulating, and classifying faulty behaviors in CPSs. This enables the creation of comprehensive fault dictionaries that support predictive maintenance and the development of digital twins for industrial environments.