Modelling sterilisation strategies to maximise population impact and cost-efficiency in free-roaming dog populations

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Modelling sterilisation strategies to maximise population impact and cost-efficiency in free-roaming dog populations

Authors

Fielding, H. R.; Bessell, P. R.; Gibson, A. D.; Fernandes, K. A.; Amulya, V. R.; Gamble, L.; Bronsvoort, B. M. d. C.; Handel, I. G.; King, R.; Mellanby, R. J.; Mazeri, S.

Abstract

Free-roaming dog populations pose challenges to public health and animal welfare, and their management and protection is legally mandated in many countries to control zoonotic diseases such as rabies, reduce bites, mitigate fear of aggressive dogs, and preserve animal welfare. Although international organisations recommend holistic dog population management with surgical sterilisation as a key component, stakeholders report a lack of evidence-based guidance on effective and cost-efficient strategies. To address this, we developed a deterministic model of a closed free-roaming dog (FRD) population, including dogs dependent on and independent of humans, parameterised using data from southern India. We evaluated a wide range of sterilisation strategies varying duration, interval, frequency, intensity, targeting different population subsets, and fixed or responsive approaches. Strategies were assessed based on their effects on independent FRD population size and implementation costs. Female sterilisation coverage (FSC) strongly determined population reduction and cost-effectiveness. Repeated, short sterilisation periods with appropriately timed intervals and high early intensity best balanced population reduction and cost-efficiency. Excluding dependent dogs (cared for by humans) severely constrained population reduction, while male sterilisation enhanced impact at little extra cost, assuming direct effects on pregnancy rates. Costs and population impacts can be visualised on an interactive web application (https://field.shinyapps.io/DogPopSimApp), allowing practitioners and policymakers to explore sterilisation strategy outcomes. Overall, cost-effective population reduction required sustained commitment and coverage-driven strategies that balance welfare, population reduction and the operational needs of dog-mediated rabies control.

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