Eller, J. A.; Gold, K. M.; Emery, S. E.

Invasive species disrupt natural and agricultural ecosystems, leading to cascading shifts and economic losses. The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) has spread rapidly across the northeastern United States, facilitated by its ecological flexibility, human activities, and the widespread presence of its favored host, tree-of-heaven (Ailanthus altissima). This polyphagous insect threatens New York vineyards, but the level of risk is uncertain. Using ~22,000 tree-of-heaven and ~10,000 SLF observations, species distribution models were developed for New York State using Random Forests. Models incorporate ~1km scale resource availability, remote sensing, human influence as well as geographic and climatic variables to better reflect factors that define niche breadth. A tree-of-heaven suitability index was used as a predictor of spotted lanternfly suitability. The species distribution models for tree-of-heaven and spotted lanternfly had high accuracy (98%). To quantify vineyard risk, tree-of-heaven and spotted lanternfly suitability were integrated with a distance weighted measure of vineyard proximity. Habitat suitability and vineyard risk were modeled under both current (2011-2040) and worsening future (2041-2070) climate scenarios. For tree-of-heaven the statewide increase in suitable habitat is modest and high suitability in the wine-growing regions actually decrease from 1.4% to 1.3%. High suitability nearly doubles between current and future conditions for spotted lanternfly, but the area at high risk is still less than 1.5% of the wine-growing regions. Though the future risk SLF poses to vineyards in the Finger Lakes and Hudson Valley is projected to increase in area and intensity, the risk burden under worsening climate conditions in the near-future is less than expected. These results highlight the need for fine scale management strategies and species-specific estimates in response to climate change and resource availability across the landscape.